Research
Publications:
An Event Study of COVID-19 Central Bank Quantitative Easing in Advanced and Emerging Economies with Alessandro Rebucci and Jonathan Hartley in Advances in Econometrics Vol. 43A: Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling [link], NBER Working Paper [link], SSRN [link]
Note: Paper cited by Ben Bernanke (yes, I still can't believe it) in his book 21st Century Monetary Policy [picture]
Shipping Costs and Inflation with Yan Carrière-Swallow, Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, and Jonathan D. Ostry in the Journal of International Money and Finance [link], IMF Working Paper [link], CEPR Discussion Paper [link]
The Effects of COVID-19 Vaccines on Economic Activity with Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Siddharth Kothari, Jonathan D. Ostry and Nour Tawk in The Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES) [link], IMF Working Paper [link], CEPR Discussion Paper [link], SSRN [link]
Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes with Pragyan Deb, Davide Furceri, Siddharth Kothari, Jonathan D. Ostry and Nour Tawk in Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, IMF Working Paper [link], CEPR Discussion Paper [link].
Recessions and External Imbalances with Julia Estefanía-Flores, Davide Furceri and Pablo González-Domínguez in Cuadernos Económicos de ICE [link]
Work in progress:
State-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through with Yan Carrière-Swallow, Melih Firat and Davide Furceri. IMF Working Paper [link].
The Impact of COVID-19 on Hospital Bankruptcy Risk in the United States with Ge Bai, Phillip Phan, Luis Quintero, Alessandro Rebucci and Xian Sun. NBER [link], SSRN [link].
Policy Work:
"Recent Inflation Experiences in Asia and the Pacific" Chapter 2, IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific (October 2023) [link]
"Phillips Curve Estimation for Asia and the Pacific" Online Box 2.2, IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific (October 2023) [link]
"State-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through " Box 1, IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific (April 2023) [link]
"How Are Inflation Expectations Measured in Asia? " Box 1.2, IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific (October 2022) [link]
"Medium-Term Output Losses after COVID-19 in Asia: The Role of Corporate Debt and Digitalization " Chapter 2, IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific (October 2022) [link]
"Leveraging Opportunities from COVID-19 Vaccines: Early Lessons from Asia " Chapter 3, IMF Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific (October 2021) [link]
Blogs:
Shipping costs are an important, and understudied, driver of global inflation in VoxEU (08-Nov-2022) [link]
How Soaring Shipping Costs Raise Prices Around the World in IMF Blog (28-Mar-2022) [link]
Higher Shipping Costs May Lift Asia’s Low Inflation in IMF Blog (22-Dec-2021) [link]
The economic effects of COVID-19 vaccines in VoxEU (16-Dec-2021) [link]
COVID-19 vaccine rollouts: Drivers and effects on health outcomes in VoxEU (13-Dec-2021) [link]
Recorded Presentations:
A Headwind to Recovery—How Soaring Shipping Costs Raise Prices Around the World @ IMF Analytical Corner (Spring Meetings 2022) [link] [YouTube]
Webinar on Shipping Costs and Inflation @ IMF Singapore Training Institute (27-Apr-2022) [link] [video]
[In Spanish] Costos de Envío e Inflación @ Escuela de Economía y Finanzas en EAFIT (07-Jun-2022) [video]
Other research work where I have contributed a thing or two:
COVID-19 Stay-Home Orders: Direct and Spillover Effects from Staggered U.S. County Adoption with Vadim Elenev, Luis Quintero, Alessandro Rebucci and Emilia Simeonova. SSRN [link]
Pandemic Protocols, Native Nutrition: Grocery Store Access from American Indian Reservations during COVID-19 Published in AEA Papers and Proceedings. With Luis Quintero, Emilia Simeonova and Randall Akee
Pandemic Protocols, Native Health: Health Care Access from American Indian Reservations During COVID-19 for the NBER COVID-19 and Health Outcomes Conference. With Luis Quintero, Emilia Simeonova and Randall Akee
The Long and Winding Roads: Roads, Inequality, and Growth in Colombia with Luis Quintero and Guillermo Sinisterra
Is COVID-19 The Great Equalizer? Heterogenous Impact of Non Pharmaceutical Policies in a Metropolitan Area with David Castells-Quintana, Paula Herrera-Idarraga, Luis Quintero and Guillermo Sinisterra
COVID-19 Time-varying Reproduction Numbers Worldwide: An Empirical Analysis of Mandatory and Voluntary Social Distancing with Alexander Chudik, M. Hashem Pesaran and Alessandro Rebucci
Other:
Personal links: RePEC // SSRN // LinkedIn // Google Scholar // NBER
And many other things I don't recall ...